From a Whisper to a Roar, What 2024 has in Store

As a scientist I’ve spent decades studying how the air and sea communicate with each other. From a whisper to a roar, their sounds roll and ruffle across the blue expanse. Fruits of their joint labor like tropical cyclones dance across the planet and yield some of the fiercest most bellicose noises. 

So here I categorize the signals emerging in 2023 and their impact in 2024 as a “whisper” or a “roar.” With so many sounds to make sense of, this is a navigation guide to four areas to tune into...

In November I wrote for Economist Impact about emergent signs in oceans/blue economy investing. Among the most enduring has been the continued growth in CDR writ large (see cdr.fyi and new funding mechanisms like Stripe’s direct purchase) and especially the marine variety with growing ocean investments from Frontier Fund. 

Other signs include the scale-up last year in field-building and field-growing organizations like Ocean Visions,  Carbon to Sea and Cascade Climate who besides surging funding into research on ocean CDR, and approaches like ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and the related enhanced rock weathering (ERW), respectively, also facilitate test beds and other science de-risking activities that serve as a brilliant beacon for other forms of capital. Government funding programs by NOPP, NOAA and DOE joined in 2023 in accelerating marine CDR. Marine CDR (mCDR) and marine Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) start-ups continue to proliferate. Propeller is actively investing in this space, and we will be sharing our investments in mCDR thus far in the near future.

Expect more cooperation to achieve massive scale-up this year, and more entities to come into formation and lend their talents. The new $250M philanthropic fund ORCA was announced last month at COP28. It’s hitting all the high notes in how to grow climate solutions. Public-private hybrid and flexible funding will accelerate fast development - e.g., the Convergent Research incubated C-Worthy developing open source ocean biogeochemical modeling for MRV. I look forward to the novel collaborations spanning the private sector that these funding streams yield.

The increasing flow of capital combined with government signals (Fast-track gov committee for marine CDR set to shape regulations and forthcoming DOE purchases that can encompass marine CDR) will form a roar.

Disruptive opportunities for AI in climate tech promise to re-invent workflows and workproducts [sic]. As this plays out in the larger application space of AI (Benchmark GP Sarah Tavel on this topic), the potential to create new categories of offerings is growing bigger in climate tech.

For example, back in 2018 when I joined Jupiter to direct early product development the category of climate risk was brand new and the nascent companies were creating products that spanned across multiple sectors. Five years later new companies are forging products tailored entirely to specific sectors, like utilities. This market segmentation represents a maturation of course, and also an opportunity for AI to deliver more integrative products that double-down on deep sectoral and domain knowledge to escape the competition.

Photo: Android founder Rich Miner, Hubspot cofounder Dharmesh Shah, and AI researchers Jennifer Sleeman of JHU, and Rickard Brüel Gabrielsson of MIT join Julie Pullen of Propeller for an event Propeller hosted on climate and AI in May 2023 in Boston.

Identifying and orienting into the fast currents (relative to the large water bodies) is still ahead for AI in climate tech. Our friends Josh Felser & Raj Kapoor at Climactic recognize this and launched a new fund at the end of last year entirely dedicated to software in climate tech. We at Propeller are looking forward to collaborating with them.

While the overall genAI space is roaring, the manifestation of genAI in climate tech startups has so far been more of a whisper. Expect this to change because of the confluence of multiple use cases driving innovation. For example, some of the most advanced AI applications I am seeing are in the national security/defense space. And this arena is experiencing breathtaking growth.

Across my prior work in national security and defense (leading the DHS National Center for Maritime Security and as a naval oceanographer and Navy-funded professor of ocean engineering) I’ve seen the evolution of this massive sector and its embrace of different technology waves. What we are experiencing now is a spectacular convergence of factors that are driving rapid change.

The defense department has articulated 14 critical technology areas and continued last year to create programs to ensure that the best technologies are nationally sourced. These critical areas include AI, autonomy, advanced materials and renewable energy. The IRA similarly incentivizes domestic companies in climate tech areas.

The growth in defense spending and programs given the geopolitical context is no surprise. But it is also opening up opportunities for broadened intersection with the oceans. 

For example the declaration of the majority of countries to protect 30% of land and ocean by 2030 (30x30) achieved at the UN Biodiversity Conference in Montreal last year has led to follow-on financing announced at COP28 for protecting 30% of the Pacific. Guaranteeing the integrity of marine protected areas against incursions such as fishing and other illegal activities is not just a national security focus but represents a growing market as biodiversity credits are set to expand this year. Technologies that quantify biodiversity over long ranges will be particularly favored.

Alongside these trends, there is enhanced emphasis on the role of multi-faceted surveillance in key flashpoint regions such as Pacific island nations where blatant illegal fishing and territorial skirmishes are rampant as in the West Philippine Sea.  

Additionally, new areas of attention are opening up as the Arctic warms and vital NATO interests are at stake. At the Arctic Circle Assembly in the fall, I joined an “Arctic Shield” panel where I spoke about how polar ice stabilizes our planetary circulation and what it means to lose it from an earth system perspective.

Photo: An Arctic Circle Assembly panel on the changing Arctic and protective measures for ocean and ice with (from right to left) Julie Pullen of Propeller, Sylvia Earle of Mission Blue, Sally Ranney of Global Choices, and indigenous youth climate justice activist Shreya K.C.

Expect more crossover of natsec/defense tech to improve and innovate ocean tech and vice versa as more geographical regions at the crossroads of climate and national security come to prominence and experience boosted patrolling and smarter tech (hardware and software).

I’m thrilled with the sheer talent and leadership I see in ocean climate tech companies founded and led by women. In an industry like VC that thrives on “pattern matching” where founders are historically men these pathways can seem outside the norm. Coupled with narratives of men as storied leaders accomplishing daring deeds and bold successes that have long held a compelling place in our culture, the path of women and BIPOC founders can seem even more improbable. We will be investing in these other leaders and look forward to cheering their successes. We encourage everyone to do the same.

And on the topic of women leaders, women are increasingly weaving complex projects into immense impact with steady, calm and powerful leadership. I mentioned examples from the international stage in my COP28 reflections. It’s a new type of leader who blends intensity and passion with kindness and vulnerability that we utterly need now.

A final note on women’s voices…

The publishing world is awash in fiction with engrossing storylines of climate catastrophe and bold action written by men. (I thoroughly enjoyed The Deluge, Termination Shock, and The Ministry for the Future!) But it is a different book that captured my heart last year. Migrations by Charlotte McConaghy tells the story of a fervent drive to sustain one species a little bit longer. That’s the kind of story that resonates with me as a widow parenting my kids through loss and love on a convulsing but still benevolent planet.

I look forward to new non-fiction books this year from scientist friends/colleagues Ayana Elizabeth Johnson and Kate Marvel.